2009 Grammy Rap Predictions

Say what you want about the Academy Awards, winning a Grammy is still considered the highest level of music recognition. Lil Wayne leads this year's nominees with eight. Though conventional wisdom suggests that he'll walk home with a few gramophones, nothing is ever guaranteed at the Grammys. Just ask India.Arie. As we prepare to witness this year's event, let's revisit the hip-hop nominees and attempt to predict the winners. ("Likely Winner" indicates who's most likely to walk home with the gramohphone. "My Pick" represents who I want to win the award.)

Best Rap Solo Performance

• Jay-Z - "Roc Boys (And The Winner Is)..."
• Lil Wayne - "A Milli"
• Lupe Fiasco - "Paris, Tokyo"
• Nas - "N.i.*.*.e.r. (The Slave And The Master)"
• Snoop Dogg - "Sexual Eruption"

This is a shockingly diverse category. They even managed to make room for Nas' "N.i.*.*.e.r. (The Slave And The Master)." That said, I don't see Nas winning the battle in this competitive category. Lil Wayne will take this one by default, given "A Milli"'s unparalleled popularity.
Likely Winner: Lil Wayne - "A Milli"
My Pick: Lupe Fiasco - "Paris, Tokyo"

Best Rap/Sung Collaboration

• Estelle (Feat. Kanye West) - "American Boy"
• Flo Rida (Feat. T-Pain) - "Low"
• John Legend & Andre 3000 - "Green Light"
• Lil Wayne (Feat. T-Pain) - "Got Money"
• Lupe Fiasco (Feat. Matthew Santos) - "Superstar"

This is a much more traditional lineup: The crossover favorite ("American Boy"), the club favorite ("Low"), and the "Hey, what's he doing here?" ("Superstar"). If the Grammys are anything like they've been in the past, then the infectious club jingle "Low" wins this horse race, with Estelle possibly pulling an upset.
Likely Winner: Estelle (Feat. Kanye West) - "American Boy"
My Pick: John Legend & Andre 3000 - "Green Light"

Best Rap Performance By A Duo Or Group

• Big Boi (Feat. Raekwon & Andre 3000) - "Royal Flush"
• Jay-Z & T.I. (Feat. Kanye West & Lil Wayne) - "Swagga Like Us"
• Lil Wayne (Feat. Jay-Z) - "Mr. Carter"
• Ludacris (Feat. T.I.) - "Wish You Would"
• Young Jeezy (Feat. Kanye West) - "Put On"

The presence of "Royal Flush" in this category is proof that Grammy voters are becoming more sophisticated. "Royal Flush" topped our 100 Best Songs of 2008 list and I'd be pleasantly surprised if it wins. However, "Swagga Like Us" and "Put On" are the two major contenders here. Dear Grammy voters, please surprise us by awarding this one to "Royal Flush."
Likely Winner: Jay-Z & T.I. (Feat. Kanye West & Lil Wayne) - "Swagga Like Us"
My Pick: Big Boi (Feat. Raekwon & Andre 3000) - "Royal Flush"

Best Rap Song

• Lil Wayne - "Lollipop"
• Flo Rida (Feat. T-Pain) - "Low"
• "Snoop Dogg - Sexual Eruption"
• T.I. & Jay-Z (Feat. Kanye & Lil Wayne) - "Swagga Like Us"
• Lupe Fiasco (Feat. Matthew Santos) - "Superstar"

This category is up for grabs, but the titles that begin with "L" stand a better chance of getting the "W" on Grammy night. If Grammy history is any guide, Lil Wayne takes this one.
Likely Winner: Lil Wayne - "Lollipop"
My Pick: T.I. & Jay-Z (Feat. Kanye & Lil Wayne) - "Swagga Like Us"

Best Rap Album Nominees

• American Gangster, Jay-Z
• Tha Carter III, Lil Wayne
• The Cool, Lupe Fiasco
• Untitled, Nas
• Paper Trail, T.I.

As is the case every year, Best Rap Album category is the most competitive category. American Gangster was released way back in November of 2007, so I doubt anyone will remember to vote for it. Tha Carter III was 2008's top selling album and will probably snatch this category. It's also in the running for Album of the Year.
Likely Winner: Tha Carter III, Lil Wayne
My Pick: The Cool, Lupe Fiasco

Who Actually Won?

• 2009 Grammy Hip-Hop Winners